E-LOGOS 2021, 28(2):16-25 | DOI: 10.18267/j.e-logos.487

Methodology of examining the efficient markets hypothesis - gradual evolution or paradigmatic leaps?

Michal Vyletelka
Faculty of Economics, Prague University of Economics and Business, Prague, Czech Republic

Článok reflektuje historický vývoj skúmania hypotézy efektívnych trhov s vybranými stanoviskami metodológie vedy. Z vedeckého skúmania finančných trhov sa zdá, že aj napriek zdanlivým paradigmatickým prechodom medzi jednotlivými hypotézami o efektivite trhov sa úroveň vedeckého poznania menila kontinuálne, predovšetkým kvôli postupnej aplikácii nových analytických inštrumentov a nových metód testovania. Protichodné vedecké teórie vznikali a boli testované súbežne, rozdiel medzi ich prijatím a zamietnutím spočíval na sile empirických dôkazov poskytnutých v danom časovom období. Vývoj skúmaných teórií s postupne robustnejším metodickým rámcom tak verne pripomína Toulminov evolučný model, pričom metodologické postoje Kuhna a Feyerabenda sa javia ako neuspokojivé.

Keywords: hypotéza efektívnych trhov, Toulminov evolučný model, Popper, falsifikacionizmus, Kuhn, Feyerabend

The article reflects the historical progress of the research of the efficient market hypothesis with selected opinions of the methodology of the science. From a scientific study of financial markets, it appears that despite the apparent paradigmatic leaps between the various hypotheses, the level of scientific knowledge has elevated gradually, mainly through the application of new analytical instruments and new testing methods. Contradictory scientific theories originated and were tested in parallel, the difference between their acceptance and rejection lay in the strength of the empirical evidence provided over a given period of time. The development of theories accompanied with ever-growing methodologic framework thus faithfully resembles Toulmin’s evolutionary model, while methodological attitudes of Kuhn and Feyerabend appears unsatisfactory.

Keywords: Efficient markets hypothesis, Toulmin’s evolutionary model, Popper, Kuhn, Feyerabend, falsifiability

Received: February 15, 2021; Accepted: December 20, 2021; Published: December 31, 2021  Show citation

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Vyletelka, M. (2021). Methodology of examining the efficient markets hypothesis - gradual evolution or paradigmatic leaps? E-LOGOS, 28(2), 16-25. doi: 10.18267/j.e-logos.487
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